Chesterfield, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

999
FXUS63 KDTX 260732
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
332 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Summer-like temperatures expected through Wednesday. These
conditions will bring a low chance of showers and thunderstorms late
Wednesday.

- A return to more seasonable temperatures Thursday through next
weekend. No rain currently expected during this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Light southeasterly flow off Lake Erie late tonight has been enough
to pool moisture across Monroe and southern Metro Detroit to
generate areas of dense fog. This fog will hold through daybreak
before diurnal heating dissipates it latter half of the morning.

Similar setup today as yesterday as the region remains under the
influence of high pressure centered near Lake Erie. Continuing warm
advection nudges 850mb temps up a few degrees compared to Memorial
Day supporting widespread low to mid 80 highs. Mid-level flow around
the high keeps the main advection directed toward central MI
allowing temps across the Saginaw Valley into the western Thumb to
make a run into the upper 80s.

A front sagging out of the northern Great Lakes eventually begins to
drop through the northern CWA (north of I-69) as a shallow backdoor
cold front late Tuesday night-early Wednesday. The weak, shallow
nature of the initial boundary brings little fanfare with its
arrival, with only a shift to light north-northeasterly winds being
the main change. This looks to change by late afternoon-evening as a
compact shortwave drops through the western/central Great Lakes
driving the primary frontal slope into the area. Timing window
favors areas south of M-59 to see at least a few hundred J/kg of
MLCAPE by fropa offering a shot at widely scattered showers/isolated
thunder. For areas north, earlier arrival lends to lesser diurnal
instability availability and more isolated rain chances.

Frontal passage ushers in a cooler, albeit more seasonably average
airmass to close out the week. Broad northern Ontario high pressure
builds across the central Great Lakes daytime Thursday and slowly
sinks towards the Ohio Valley by the weekend. Resultant late week
conditions will be characterized by highs in the 70s, lows in the
upper 40s to low 50s, and dry conditions.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure over the region is drifting southward and will settle
across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today. A cold front
will be dropping southward through Lake Superior early in the day
before reaching central Lake Huron this evening when it could touch
off a few showers and thunderstorms. It will continue southward
tonight into Wednesday passing through Lake Erie Wednesday
afternoon. Another area of high pressure builds into the region
behind the front and will lead to varying winds throughout the end
of the week. There may be periods with enhanced onshore northeast
winds, which may elevate wave activity in nearshore zones at times.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1153 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026

AVIATION...

Center of elongated surface high pressure will remain in place over
the far southern forecast area tonight. Anticyclonic release of
marine airmass off of Lake Erie could provide for some moisture and
fog tonight at the Detroit terminals. Low confidence does exist on
occurrence because of the urban heat island may be just warm enough
to limit development. For KFNT and KMBS there is expected to be
enough of a southwest gradient wind to night to limit a surface
inversion and br/fg. Large scale blocking over Bermuda is expected
to stall out a very weak upper level low over the mid Mississippi
River Valley. High cloud is anticipated Tuesday over the far
southern forecast area with modest southwest winds.

D21/DTW Convection...No thunderstorms anticipated.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None.

* Low for visibilities of 1/2sm or ceilings at less than 300 ft late
  tonight.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KDK
MARINE.......DRK
AVIATION.....CB


You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.